EarthBrowserLive · Aurora forecast
Aurora forecast tonight
The planetary K index is 3 right now (unsettled), which puts the visible aurora over Iceland, Tromsø, Fairbanks, Yellowknife. NOAA forecasts it staying near Kp 3.7 through the coming night.
- Kp now
- 3Unsettled
- Forecast peak (36 h)
- 3.7Unsettled
- Storm outlook
- no storm
- Solar wind speed
- 709km/s
- Bz (IMF)
- -2.8 nTsouth, favourable
- Density
- 1.6p/cm³
Kp from NOAA SWPC, estimated at · solar wind at L1 , Bz low -3.5 nT in 3 h
The full globe draws the aurora oval over both poles with the night side shaded, so you can see where the lights are in the dark right now, and scrub back through recent forecasts.
Can I see the aurora from where I am?
3-day Kp forecast
NOAA's planetary K index forecast in 3-hour steps. Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm (G1); each step up roughly doubles how far equatorward the aurora can be seen. Observed values are from the last day, predicted ones from the current forecast.
| Interval start (UTC) | Kp | Activity | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.7 | Quiet | observed | |
| 2 | Quiet | observed | |
| 3.7 | Unsettled | estimated | |
| 2.7 | Quiet | estimated | |
| 2.7 | Quiet | estimated | |
| 1.7 | Quiet | estimated | |
| 1.7 | Quiet | estimated | |
| 1.7 | Quiet | estimated | |
| 2.7 | Quiet | estimated | |
| 3 | Unsettled | predicted | |
| 3 | Unsettled | predicted | |
| 2.7 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 2.3 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 2 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 1.3 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 2.3 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 2.3 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 3 | Unsettled | predicted | |
| 2.7 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 2.3 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 2 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 1.3 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 1.3 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 1 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 2 | Quiet | predicted | |
| 1.7 | Quiet | predicted |
NOAA G-scale outlook: so far today no storm · today no storm · tomorrow no storm · Nov 12, 2026 no storm.
How far south the aurora reaches
| Kp | Activity | Visible down to about |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Quiet | the far north: northern Norway, Alaska, northern Canada, Svalbard |
| 3 | Unsettled | Iceland, Tromsø, Fairbanks, Yellowknife |
| 4 | Active | the northern US border, central Scandinavia, southern Alaska |
| 5 | Minor storm (G1) | Michigan, Maine, Scotland, southern Scandinavia |
| 6 | Moderate storm (G2) | New York, Idaho, Denmark, the north of England |
| 7 | Strong storm (G3) | Illinois, Oregon, central Germany, southern New Zealand, Tasmania |
| 8 | Severe storm (G4) | Alabama, northern California, central France, the whole of New Zealand |
| 9 | Extreme storm (G5) | Florida, Texas, southern Spain and Italy, northern Australia |
These are geomagnetic latitudes, which is why the aurora reaches further south over North America than over Europe at the same Kp: the magnetic pole sits over northern Canada. The widget above does that conversion for your location.
Seeing it tonight
You need a dark sky, a clear view to the poleward horizon (north in the northern hemisphere, south in the southern), and activity high enough for your latitude. The best hours are around local midnight, roughly 10 pm to 2 am, when your location rotates under the thickest part of the oval. A bright moon or city lights wash out all but strong displays.
Watch the solar wind: a southward Bz (negative, shown above) lets the solar wind couple into Earth's field and is the single best short-term sign that the lights are about to brighten; speed above 500 km/s and a density jump mark the arrival of a coronal mass ejection or a fast stream. Faint aurora often photographs green before it is obvious to the eye, so a 5–10 second phone exposure toward the horizon is a good test.
Frequently asked questions
Will there be northern lights tonight?
Compare the forecast Kp above with your latitude: at Kp 5 (a G1 storm) the aurora can be seen from the northern United States, Scotland and southern Scandinavia; at Kp 7 from the central US and central Europe; below Kp 4 it stays over the far north. Use the location check on this page for a direct answer.
What is the Kp index?
A 0–9 measure of global geomagnetic disturbance, updated every three hours from magnetometers around the world. NOAA also publishes a one-minute estimate. Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm, rated G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme).
What time is best to see the aurora?
Around local midnight, roughly 10 pm to 2 am, when your location is under the widest part of the auroral oval, in a dark sky away from city lights. Substorms can bring sudden bright displays at any hour of the night, so a quiet sky can change within minutes.
Why does Bz matter?
Bz is the north-south part of the interplanetary magnetic field carried by the solar wind. When it points south (negative), it connects with Earth’s field and pours energy into the magnetosphere; a sustained Bz below about −10 nT with fast solar wind is the recipe for a strong display.
How accurate is the aurora forecast?
The 3-day Kp forecast is good at flagging the arrival of a coronal mass ejection or a high-speed stream to within several hours, but the strength of a storm is only known once the solar wind reaches the DSCOVR spacecraft at L1, about 15 to 60 minutes before it hits Earth. Treat the forecast as a heads-up and the live solar wind as the trigger.
Where does this data come from?
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: the planetary K index and its 3-day forecast, the G-scale outlook, the OVATION aurora model drawn on the globe, and solar wind measurements from the DSCOVR and ACE spacecraft at the L1 point. EarthBrowser refreshes them every few minutes.